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The evidence belongs next to the claim.

A useful change record should tell you what was observed, when it was observed, and how much you can reasonably conclude.

Start with an observation.

A vendor mention is an observation. Adoption, removal, and switching are interpretations. Keeping those layers separate makes it possible to revisit a conclusion without rewriting the original evidence.

A useful record pairs a company and vendor with a source URL, a dated observation, the underlying signal, and an explanation of the inference.

Aster Labs example evidence record comparing two dated disclosures and distinguishing co-adoption from replacement.
Example records. Select the image for a closer look.

A second source should add a second perspective.

A careers page and a copied version of the same job posting are not independent evidence. Corroboration should account for where a claim originated, not simply how many pages repeat it.

Public disclosures, career-site integrations, and technical documentation can contribute different kinds of context. Contradictory observations belong in the record too.

Describe the change precisely.

  • Adoption signal: new evidence that a company uses or has a relationship with a vendor.
  • Removal signal: a previously observed reference is no longer present. Removal alone does not establish cancellation.
  • Co-adoption: evidence of two vendors in use, without a demonstrated replacement.
  • Switch signal: evidence consistent with movement from one vendor to another, with remaining uncertainty made explicit.

Keep two clocks.

Event time describes when a change is reported to have happened. Observation time describes when we first learned about it. Those dates can differ substantially.

When the event date is unknown, it should stay unknown. A collection timestamp should never be silently presented as a contract start or cancellation date.

Historical research workspace applying an observation-time cutoff to an AI-vendor relationship chart.
Example records. Select the image for a closer look.

Make uncertainty usable.

A source may cover a subsidiary, a trial, a business unit, or a specific workflow. Entity matching and scope matter as much as vendor detection.

Confidence should reflect source quality, recency, corroboration, and unresolved conflicts. Those judgments are not a guarantee of spend, renewal timing, or customer churn.

Follow the change.
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